arXiv cs.CY· Nathan DeBardeleben·· 10 天前AI 评分27
当科学认知不再稀缺：AI 时代的"稀缺性倒置"
When Scientific Cognition Is No Longer Scarce
AI 导读
论文提出"稀缺性倒置"概念：当机器系统在文献综述、假设生成、软件开发、模拟和分析等可计算科学工作上比人更快更好更便宜时，实验、观测、可靠结论与可问责的机构权威反而成为稀缺资源。这一变化将最先出现在数学和编程/软件/算法设计领域，因为整个科学闭环可在计算内完成。对国立实验室而言，其独特作用是把充裕的机器推理转化为可信结果，需重新思考设施、验证、溯源、资源分配与科学治理。
正文 · 原文
Abstract:AI could change which parts of science impede progress. Consider a world in which machine systems are better, faster, and cheaper than people at most scientific work that can be done through a computer. Our question is what would limit science in that world. Literature synthesis, hypothesis generation, software development, simulation, and analysis could become abundant, while experiments, observations, well-supported conclusions, and accountable institutional au- thority remain scarce. Science would then be constrained by a different set of resources. In this paper, we call this change the scarcity inversion and consider four parts of it: selection, physical access, validation, and organizational choice. This change is arriving first in mathematics and coding/software/algorithm design, where the whole scientific loop can run inside computation. For national laboratories, the change could be striking. Their distinctive role is to turn abundant machine reasoning into trustworthy results by combining controlled experiments, protected data, expert judgment, and accountable authority. The practical question is how facilities, verification, provenance, resource allocation, and scientific governance should change when reasoning is plentiful and trustworthy evidence is scarce.
| Comments: | 14 pages, 1 figure |
| Subjects: | Computers and Society (cs.CY); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) |
| Report number: | LA-UR-26-28795 |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2610.10241 [cs.CY] |
| (or arXiv:2610.10241v1 [cs.CY] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.10241 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) |
Submission history
From: Nathan DeBardeleben [view email]
[v1]
Wed, 7 Oct 2026 15:25:04 UTC (46 KB)
来源：arXiv cs.CY · arxiv.org