arXiv cs.CY· Miko{\l}aj Sienicki, Krzysztof Sienicki·· 10 天前AI 评分27
AI 如何导致人类灭绝？一项文明风险的失效模式分析
How Could AI Eliminate Humanity? A Failure-Mode Analysis of Civilizational Risk
AI 导读
一篇 83 页论文提出失效模式框架，分析先进 AI 如何可能导致人类灭绝、不可逆的文明崩溃或人类永久失能。论文认为灾难性 AI 风险不需要意识、敌意或明确的伤害意图，而可能来自自主失准、人类恶意使用、组织失效和竞争性部署等相互作用的路径。风险严重程度取决于能力、自主性、外部访问、持续性、机构保障和恢复能力等因素。
正文 · 原文
Abstract:This article develops a failure-mode framework for analyzing how advanced artificial intelligence could contribute to human extinction, irreversible civilizational collapse, or permanent human disempowerment. The central thesis is that catastrophic AI risk does not require consciousness, hostility, or an explicit intention to harm humanity. Instead, risk may arise through several distinct but interacting pathways, including autonomous misalignment, harmful human use, organizational failure, and competitive deployment. The severity of these pathways depends on factors such as capability, autonomy, external access, persistence, institutional safeguards, and the preservation of recovery capacity. The analysis is deliberately non-operational: it identifies causal conditions, empirically tractable intermediate quantities, and defensive research questions rather than procedures for causing harm.
| Comments: | 83 pages, 20 sections, 35 references |
| Subjects: | Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computers and Society (cs.CY); Human-Computer Interaction (cs.HC) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2610.08878 [cs.AI] |
| (or arXiv:2610.08878v1 [cs.AI] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.08878 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite |
Submission history
From: Kris Sienicki [view email]
[v1]
Tue, 6 Oct 2026 07:28:29 UTC (81 KB)
来源：arXiv cs.CY · arxiv.org