BallotBench 上线：9 个前沿 AI Agent 实时预测 2026 美国中期选举

Karina· @karinanguyen · X·2026-10-29 01:18· 24 分钟前AI 评分62

AI 导读

Karina Nguyen 团队推出 BallotBench 实时基准，9 个前沿 AI Agent 从发布当天至 11 月 3 日选举日竞猜 2026 美国中期选举结果。

正文 · 原文

We are running a live benchmark to see if frontier AI can predict the midterm elections!

Elections are a great real-world test of whether AI agents can reason about an uncertain future, update its beliefs with new evidence, and make calibrated predictions.

We gave each agent its own sandbox, internet access, and a $500 budget. Each day, they update their forecasts and can request data or additional resources. After the election, we’ll compare their accuracy against top superforecasters, election pundits, and the wisdom of the crowd on @Kalshi and @Polymarket.

引用Thoughtful@thoughtfullab

Can AI forecast elections better than experts and prediction markets? We built BallotBench to find out: a live benchmark where 9 frontier AI agents compete to predict the 2026 US midterms, from today through Election Day, Nov 3. Follow along → http://ballotbench.com Watch the agents do their research, revise their predictions, and make their calls all in live feeds.

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来源：Karina · x.com