世界模型为何在事件转换上算错回报：一项转换级诊断

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Abstract:World models are increasingly used for planning, where a planner ranks candidate actions by returns imagined by the model. However, these models are judged mainly by how well they render frames, even though a visually faithful rollout can still assign the wrong return. To identify where this mismatch arises, we introduce a transition-level diagnostic that replaces imagined transitions with real ones and measures the reduction in return error against a budget-matched random control. Our analysis yields two findings. (1) Event transitions, the few steps where a reward is earned or an episode ends, are rendered as well as other steps (median pixel-error ratio 0.85), yet restoring them removes a median of 70% of the return error. In contrast, restoring transitions with the largest MSE, SSIM or LPIPS error removes less than a random choice. Across the 44 Atari-100k model--collection pairs that pass our reliability checks, including three released families, event patches outperform random patches in 39 (sign test p=1.4 x 10^{-7}), with a median gain of +44 percentage points. (2) The remaining error is structured: a complementary patch separates errors at true events from those elsewhere, while an eight-step timing tolerance recovers few events missed by our deterministic models. This structure also guides repair: a rule recorded before four repair outcomes were known predicts when a diffusion model repairs these failures. Event patches improve plan ranking, and the same concentration appears on control tasks with rare reward events.

Submission history

From: Haoyue Liu [view email]
[v1] Wed, 21 Oct 2026 08:59:02 UTC (1,087 KB)