arXiv cs.CY· Morgan R. Frank, Alireza Javadian Sabet, Lisa Simon, Sarah H. Bana, Renzhe Yu·· 12 小时前AI 评分58
研究：AI暴露岗位的就业恶化早于ChatGPT发布
AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT
AI 导读
一项基于美国月度失业保险记录的研究发现，AI暴露职业的失业风险从2022年初就开始上升，早于ChatGPT发布数月。分析数百万份LinkedIn资料显示，2021年及之后的毕业生进入AI暴露岗位的比例低于更早的群体，差距在2022年末之前已经出现。
正文 · 原文
Abstract:Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT was released. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more LLM-exposed curricula had shorter job searches after ChatGPT and higher first-job pay when entering highly exposed occupations. Together, these results---pointing to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education---suggest that generative AI may not be the root cause of these labor market hardships and that the launch of ChatGPT is a faulty natural experiment for understanding AI's impact on jobs.
| Subjects: | General Economics (econ.GN); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computers and Society (cs.CY) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2601.02554 [econ.GN] |
| (or arXiv:2601.02554v2 [econ.GN] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.02554 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite |
Submission history
From: Morgan Frank [view email]
[v1]
Mon, 5 Jan 2026 21:03:21 UTC (6,390 KB)
[v2]
Fri, 16 Oct 2026 15:43:20 UTC (9,781 KB)
来源：arXiv cs.CY · arxiv.org