Bank of America 研究称 AI 资本开支超预期 50% 而收入仅超 20%
Bank of America 新研究显示，今年 AI 资本开支比预期高 50%，而收入仅高 20%，这一错配是其分析的核心。超大规模厂商的加权平均资本成本已从 2023 年的 4% 升至 10%，无风险利率比疫情低点高出 4% 以上，债务成本、股权成本和 beta 均上升。
Rohan Paul· @rohanpaul_ai · X·2026-10-20 14:21· 1 小时前AI 评分66
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Bank of America 新研究显示，今年 AI 资本开支比预期高 50%，而收入仅高 20%，这一错配是其分析的核心。
正文 · 原文
Bank of America’s new research finds AI capital spending running 50% above forecasts this year while revenue runs only 20% above, and that mismatch drives the rest of its analysis.
Hyperscalers’ weighted average cost of capital has risen from 4% in 2023 to 10%, as risk-free rates sit more than 4% above pandemic lows and debt costs, equity costs and betas have all climbed.
The BoA research still projects capex for the top 5 hyperscalers plus neoclouds at $956B in 2026, $1.32T in 2027 and $1.5T in 2028, which works out to growth of 38% and then 14%.
Its demand math puts 212GW of new data center capacity between 2026 and 2030 at about $9.5T, $2.1T above the current $7.4T capex forecast.
来源：Rohan Paul · x.com
来源：RadarAI · aihot.news