我预测 Apple 将在未来五年内开放其平台

I don’t usually make tech predictions on this blog, but let me cook for a sec:

I predict Apple will open up iOS/iPadOS within the next 5 years to allow apps that:
Do not need to be approved by Apple
Do not require a Mac to compile/develop
Do not require a $99/year developer fee

Essentially, Android side-loading. Not because of the EU, but because of the other two letters.

I spent the past week developing an Android AI chat app that can modify itself. It can ssh to my laptop via termux, edit it’s source code, rebuild, and deploy to my phone; I just need to manually re-install the APK in between updates, which takes two seconds and four taps.

Holy shit.

This is the revolution I’ve been waiting for.

I can one-shot pretty much any feature for less than a dollar in a few minutes
I can extend the app with additional panes/components/functionality, making it my own personal “everything app”
NO SUBSCRIPTIONS, ADS, TRACKING
AI can configure any server backends if I wanted to make this a shareable service with my friends and family. No sysadmin BS.
I control the data

I’m not claiming this will replace all apps. Maps require maintenance to stay up to date; Games are an art form that are more than just a UI; Social networks already have the network effect. I’m arguing that:

Many people, especially young people, will want their own subscription-free apps without cost-gated features
Want to express themselves via their software (Apple finally added theming to iOS)
Want to prototype features that make their lives easier
Will have an easier time navigating their app’s menu’s/features because they built it, it’s intuitive to them
Closed platforms will either experience a mass exodus or shut down.

I don’t think the genie is out of the bottle yet, but once people realize how much power and freedom this tech brings with basically zero effort or cost, mobile computing will change.