基于 token 的 AI 推理碳排放核算方法：企业 Scope 3 温室气体清单新框架

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Abstract:Purchased artificial intelligence (AI) inference belongs in Scope 3 Category 1 of a corporate greenhouse gas inventory, yet practice omits it or applies a spend-based factor that gives 1.7 to 12.3 times the physical estimate and cannot tell one model or region from another. This paper sets out a token-based method and open dataset: a cradle-to-gate boundary, four tiers of activity data, an effective-token basis, a four-term factor (serving electricity, embodied hardware, data-centre construction, disclosed final training runs) and a rule resolving any model identifier and region to a factor. Inference footprints span twelve times between model classes and nine between regions. The mid-class factor, 0.039 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per million billed tokens at the world-average grid, is the low end of a stated structural range: a less efficient serving configuration raises it 2.8 times, and replacing the training term with all model development, on its own boundary, gives 1.5 to 2.9 times it. Input bands alone give -18% to +29%. Published per-query energy estimates that can describe a mid-class model are 2.4 to 7.2 times the mid-class energy, above its structural range in four of five rows; those that can describe a frontier-class model bracket it at 0.7 to 1.6 times. Worked examples give 8.5 kg CO2e a year for a 200-person firm, and 2.1 tonnes for fifty developers using agentic coding tools on a mid-class model or 8.3 tonnes on a frontier-class one. The contribution is a traceable figure; accuracy against metered energy is untested.

Submission history

From: Guillermo Llopis [view email]
[v1] Tue, 9 Jun 2026 10:08:36 UTC (1,238 KB)
[v2] Thu, 15 Oct 2026 14:25:34 UTC (3,088 KB)