Agisoon.lol 盘点 48 条奇点预测：20 条已逾期

48 predictions on record

20 already overdue

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I. J. Good→
“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever... an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion.'”
Predicted in 1965
Source: Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine
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1990
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1985
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1992
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Ray Kurzweil→
“The Singularity will allow us to transcend these limitations of our biological bodies and brains... We will be able to expand our intelligence by billions of times.”
Predicted in 2005
Source: The Singularity Is Near
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Marvin Minsky→
“In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being... In a few months it will be at genius level and a few months after that its powers will be incalculable.”
Predicted in 1970
Source: Life magazine interview, 20 November 1970
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1973
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2020
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1993
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Geoffrey Hinton→
“Until quite recently, I thought it was going to be like 20 to 50 years before we have general purpose AI. And now I think it may be 20 years or less.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Interview, 2023
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1988
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Sam Altman→
“I expect AI to be capable of superhuman persuasion before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Interview, 2023
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2005
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Sam Altman→
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: The Intelligence Age
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1992
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2027
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2023
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Elon Musk→
“The world is less than three years away from AGI that can write as good a novel as J.K. Rowling, discover new physics, or invent new technology.”
Predicted in 2023
Source: Interview, December 2023
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2026
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2025
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Chamath Palihapitiya→
“The next 18 months will be wild. Recursive self improvement will dramatically increase capability very quickly from here.”
Predicted in 2026
Source: X / posts
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Elon Musk→
“Smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year... Five years from now, AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.”
Predicted in 2024
Source: Interview / Davos coverage
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