美国 AI 竞赛与对华芯片策略：一篇关于“先发制人”的评论

Internalize this graph, we post it on this blog a lot. If trends continue, China will have 10x the electricity of the US in 10 years. Whenever you think about geopolitical strategy, always keep it in mind, because whatever your plans are must consider this.

Here’s a strategy that would make sense for America long term. Sell as many AI chips into China as possible, use the money to purchase solar panel and battery factories, and build out electricity capacity as quickly as possible. Fundamentally, compute is a function of electricity. That’s the sort of long term thinking that gives America a chance. With robotic labor, immigrants like Jensen and Elon, a business friendly culture, and an incredible chunk of land, it’s not so clear who is ahead in 50 years. Regardless, I do know this strategy would lead to massive prosperity for the citizens of both countries.

However, that’s not close to what we see happening. We see a lot of short term zero sum thinking in action. It’s very scary what the US “AI race” mentality leads to. When exactly does the race end? Whatever capabilities you have today will eventually be matched, unless…

…you believe that you can use ASI in a decapitating first strike.

I’m worried that this is what these people see as the only way out.

It probably doesn’t work, can you outthink steel and drone production? I don’t see how, see my critiques here. But I’m not totally sure, I’m not a superintelligence. And if it does work, that may be the end.

My likelihood of imminent WWIII went up a lot with the nationalization of NVIDIA.