arXiv cs.AI· Mustafa F. Abdelwahed, Joan Espasa, Felipe Meneguzzi·· 12 小时前AI 评分31
Polyscene：将情景规划转化为多样性规划
Polyscene: Scenario Planning as Diversity Planning
AI 导读
Polyscene 把情景规划自动化成“多样性规划”问题：两个情景只要在分析者给定的驱动因素上导向不同叙事即视为不同，从而在预算内为主题生成一组情景。以地缘冲突为例，初始状态取自 GDELT Project，在六个国家、五个事件预算下，15 个国家对中有 5 对处于战争状态，到 2026 年 1 月 1 日爆发的三场战争各终结一个情景。
正文 · 原文
Abstract:Scenario planning is a foresight practice in which analysts construct a small set of plausible futures and prepare an organisation for each. Each scenario is a narrative that must be plausible, internally consistent, relevant and challenging, and the set as a whole must be differentiated. The practice remains manual: a workshop (i.e., a facilitated meeting in which a small group of experts writes the narratives) considers only the factors it has time for, carries the biases of the experts who run it, and cannot be redone whenever conditions change. In this paper, we automate scenario planning by casting it as a diversity planning problem, in which two scenarios differ when they end in different narratives on the analyst's drivers. The result is a set of scenarios, one for each narrative that the topic can reach within a budget. Our implementation, Polyscene, is a generic engine that generates scenarios from a topic. We use geopolitical conflicts and shipping-route disruptions as case studies. For the first, we build the planning problem's initial state from the GDELT Project so it reflects current relationships among the countries involved. Polyscene then generates scenarios showing how relationships among those countries change. With a board of six countries as of 1 January 2021 and a budget of five events, the conflict set puts five of the 15 country pairs at war, and each of the three wars that break out among these countries by 1 January 2026 ends a scenario. For the second, we build the initial state from ship traffic, a supply-pressure index, and the news, and Polyscene generates scenarios showing what a closed or diverted route could do to a manufacturer's parts stock. With four routes per board and the same date and budget, each set includes three outcomes, and the Suez Canal set includes the March 2021 blockage and the December 2023 Red Sea container diversion.
| Subjects: | Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2610.28102 [cs.AI] |
| (or arXiv:2610.28102v1 [cs.AI] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.28102 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) |
Submission history
From: Mustafa Abdelwahed [view email]
[v1]
Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:17:06 UTC (69 KB)
来源：arXiv cs.AI · arxiv.org