量子循环架构用于金融时间序列预测：未发现量子优势

View PDF HTML (experimental)

Abstract:This study evaluates quantum classical hybrid recurrent architectures for financial time-series forecasting: a Quantum Long Short-Term Memory (QLSTM) network and Quantum Reservoir Computing (QRC) with lag-based inputs. Classical lag vectors are encoded into quantum states via amplitude encoding, which compactly represents normalized observations but requires nontrivial state preparation; the QLSTM gates and the QRC reservoir are implemented with parameterized quantum circuits, while classical optimizers train the interface and readout layers. On a monthly revenue series extended to 1056 months by a Gaussian-process--hidden-Markov generator, with a fixed chronological 70/15/15 split and one-step-ahead forecasts, we compare both models against a full-size LSTM, a classical control matched in parameter budget and interface architecture, a small plain LSTM, and classical reservoir computing, over ten seeds and against persistence, seasonal-naive and SARIMA benchmark forecasts. The QLSTM, with 2,105 parameters, is statistically indistinguishable from an LSTM 126 times larger, but equally indistinguishable from the matched classical control and from a plain LSTM of the same budget, so its parameter efficiency cannot be attributed to the quantum circuits. The quantum reservoir is worse than a classical reservoir of equal feature dimension in all ten seeds and worse than SARIMA, whereas all recurrent models and both classical reservoirs improve on SARIMA by about 2\% in RMSE. In a 24-month rolling-origin backtest the classical LSTMs degrade more slowly than the QLSTM. We find no evidence of a quantum accuracy or parameter-efficiency advantage in this low-dimensional setting.

Submission history

From: Danyal Maheshwari [view email]
[v1] Wed, 11 Nov 2026 10:30:03 UTC (3,855 KB)